Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 North Carolina 100.0%   1   28 - 6 14 - 4 28 - 6 14 - 4 +20.2      +11.2 7 +8.9 6 78.2 29 +19.1 5 +18.9 1
4 Virginia 100.0%   1   26 - 7 13 - 5 26 - 7 13 - 5 +19.7      +10.8 9 +8.9 8 55.9 350 +18.9 6 +17.7 2
11 Louisville 0.0%   23 - 8 12 - 6 23 - 8 12 - 6 +17.0      +6.1 42 +10.8 1 65.7 285 +16.2 12 +16.7 4
14 Miami (FL) 100.0%   3   25 - 7 13 - 5 25 - 7 13 - 5 +16.1      +10.4 10 +5.7 40 66.4 272 +17.6 9 +17.6 3
17 Duke 100.0%   5   23 - 10 11 - 7 23 - 10 11 - 7 +15.7      +11.8 4 +3.9 76 70.2 168 +14.7 22 +14.5 5
34 Pittsburgh 93.6%   9   20 - 11 9 - 9 20 - 11 9 - 9 +11.9      +7.8 30 +4.1 69 65.5 289 +12.4 30 +11.9 9
36 Notre Dame 99.2%   7   21 - 11 11 - 7 21 - 11 11 - 7 +11.6      +10.3 12 +1.3 137 64.3 306 +13.2 28 +13.9 6
38 Syracuse 76.3%   10   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +11.5      +4.8 66 +6.7 29 64.0 313 +10.4 49 +11.2 10
46 Florida St. 14.9%   19 - 13 8 - 10 19 - 13 8 - 10 +10.6      +6.6 37 +4.0 72 77.6 40 +10.6 47 +10.1 12
48 Clemson 0.8%   17 - 14 10 - 8 17 - 14 10 - 8 +10.5      +6.4 38 +4.1 70 61.1 342 +7.9 77 +12.7 8
55 Georgia Tech 21.2%   19 - 14 8 - 10 19 - 14 8 - 10 +9.7      +5.7 51 +4.0 71 68.8 208 +10.8 45 +10.6 11
61 Virginia Tech 23.5%   19 - 14 10 - 8 19 - 14 10 - 8 +8.9      +4.8 64 +4.1 67 73.0 96 +10.4 50 +13.6 7
74 North Carolina St. 0.0%   16 - 17 5 - 13 16 - 17 5 - 13 +7.6      +6.7 36 +0.9 149 69.0 198 +6.7 90 +5.7 13
111 Wake Forest 0.0%   11 - 20 2 - 16 11 - 20 2 - 16 +3.9      +1.5 135 +2.4 111 77.3 47 +4.6 105 -1.9 14
206 Boston College 0.0%   7 - 25 0 - 18 7 - 25 0 - 18 -2.9      -5.7 310 +2.8 101 67.2 248 -5.4 244 -7.7 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
North Carolina 1.0 100.0
Virginia 2.0 100.0
Louisville 4.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 2.0 100.0
Duke 5.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 9.0 100.0
Notre Dame 5.0 100.0
Syracuse 9.0 100.0
Florida St. 11.0 100.0
Clemson 7.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 11.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 7.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 13.0 100.0
Wake Forest 14.0 100.0
Boston College 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
North Carolina 14 - 4 100.0
Virginia 13 - 5 100.0
Louisville 12 - 6 100.0
Miami (FL) 13 - 5 100.0
Duke 11 - 7 100.0
Pittsburgh 9 - 9 100.0
Notre Dame 11 - 7 100.0
Syracuse 9 - 9 100.0
Florida St. 8 - 10 100.0
Clemson 10 - 8 100.0
Georgia Tech 8 - 10 100.0
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 100.0
North Carolina St. 5 - 13 100.0
Wake Forest 2 - 16 100.0
Boston College 0 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Carolina 100.0% 100.0
Virginia
Louisville
Miami (FL)
Duke
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Florida St.
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
North Carolina St.
Wake Forest
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Carolina 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   51.4 41.2 7.3 0.1
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   56.0 40.7 3.3 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Miami (FL) 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   6.2 28.9 59.1 5.8 0.1 100.0%
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.0 0.1 6.6 37.7 36.6 18.2 0.9 0.0 100.0%
Pittsburgh 93.6% 0.0% 93.6% 9   0.0 0.5 15.2 30.9 30.9 14.3 1.9 6.4 93.6%
Notre Dame 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 7   0.1 1.5 20.9 64.8 11.1 0.9 0.0 0.8 99.2%
Syracuse 76.3% 0.0% 76.3% 10   0.0 0.6 10.7 24.5 31.5 9.0 0.0 23.7 76.3%
Florida St. 14.9% 0.0% 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.6 12.3 1.9 0.0 85.1 14.9%
Clemson 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6 0.3 0.0 99.2 0.8%
Georgia Tech 21.2% 0.0% 21.2% 0.0 0.2 2.4 17.0 1.6 0.0 78.8 21.2%
Virginia Tech 23.5% 0.0% 23.5% 0.0 0.2 2.2 19.2 1.8 0.0 76.5 23.5%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.7% 78.2% 53.8% 33.3% 20.0% 11.4%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.5% 76.9% 51.7% 31.2% 17.9% 9.7%
Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 89.1% 56.2% 27.8% 12.7% 5.6% 2.3%
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 79.5% 44.7% 18.9% 8.4% 3.5% 1.4%
Pittsburgh 93.6% 1.0% 93.2% 49.5% 12.4% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Notre Dame 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 51.0% 15.1% 5.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Syracuse 76.3% 5.1% 74.0% 36.8% 9.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Florida St. 14.9% 13.8% 8.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Clemson 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 21.2% 17.6% 12.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 23.5% 19.9% 12.7% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.3 0.0 0.6 13.3 48.4 31.5 5.9 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 1.0 20.6 57.2 19.7 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.5 4.8 20.8 38.4 27.8 7.3 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.4% 3.0 0.6 6.2 24.9 39.0 23.8 5.1 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 90.6% 1.7 9.4 33.8 39.7 14.9 2.1 0.1
Final Four 68.6% 0.9 31.5 48.7 18.4 1.4 0.0
Final Game 44.0% 0.5 56.0 39.7 4.2
Champion 25.2% 0.3 74.8 25.2